Okwawu 1–1 Golden Warriors: Result & Stats

Okwawu

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Golden Warriors

4/12/2026

Division One League · Round 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Okwawu40%

×Draw27%

Golden Warriors33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OkwawuExpected goals in this matchGolden Warriors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.19

Okwawu

1.35

Golden Warriors

1.19

Okwawu creates 13% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 16 away

1.27

creates per match

1.19

1.20

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Okwawu

1.27

Golden Warriors

1.19

allows per match

Okwawu

1.20

Golden Warriors

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Okwawu+0.00on par

Golden Warriors+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Okwawu ↓

Golden Warriors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Okwawu or draw

67%

Okwawu or Golden Warriors

73%

Draw or Golden Warriors

60%

Winning margin

Okwawu wins by 2+

19%

Golden Warriors wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Okwawu 1+ goals

74%

Okwawu 2+ goals

39%

Okwawu 3+ goals

15%

Golden Warriors 1+ goals

70%

Golden Warriors 2+ goals

33%

Golden Warriors 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Okwawu (draw refunded)

55%

Golden Warriors (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Okwawu at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Golden Warriors away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Okwawu attack 1.27 + Golden Warriors defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.35

Golden Warriors attack 1.19 + Okwawu defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Okwawu scores more

40%

level

27%

Golden Warriors scores more

33%

Okwawu at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Okwawu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff