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Qatar SC vs Al-Sailiya — League #305 2026

Qatar SC
Qatar SC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al-Sailiya
Al-Sailiya
E. Barrahma 84' (OG)
2/21/2020League #305League #305 · Round 15Suheim Bin Hamad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Qatar SC34%
×Draw30%
Al-Sailiya36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qatar SC
1.04
Al-Sailiya
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Qatar SC
1.25
Al-Sailiya
1.17

allows per match

Qatar SC
1.00
Al-Sailiya
0.83

finishing

Qatar SC+0.00on par
Al-Sailiya+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qatar SC ↓

Al-Sailiya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Qatar SC or draw
64%
Qatar SC or Al-Sailiya
70%
Draw or Al-Sailiya
66%

Winning margin

Qatar SC wins by 2+
13%
Al-Sailiya wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Qatar SC 1+ goals
65%
Qatar SC 2+ goals
28%
Qatar SC 3+ goals
9%
Al-Sailiya 1+ goals
66%
Al-Sailiya 2+ goals
29%
Al-Sailiya 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Qatar SC (draw refunded)
49%
Al-Sailiya (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qatar SC at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Al-Sailiya away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qatar SC attack 1.25 + Al-Sailiya defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.04

Al-Sailiya attack 1.17 + Qatar SC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Qatar SC scores more
34%
level
30%
Al-Sailiya scores more
36%

Al-Sailiya at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Al-Sailiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'
N. Belhadj
67'
Abdulqadir Ilyas← Mahir Yousef
68'
A. El Khayati← Ibrahim Jamal Abdelfattah
71'
Meshaal Al Shammari← Mohammed Muddather
81'
A. Abdulaziz
84'
E. BarrahmaOwn goal
87'
Majdi Siddiq← Mohammed Abu Zrayq
89'
Khalid Mahmoudi← Ahmed Doozandeh

League #305: Qatar SC 0–1 Al-Sailiya

Al-Sailiya beat Qatar SC 1-0 in League #305 on February 21, 2020.

Goals: E. Barrahma (84' o.g.).

The match was played at Suheim Bin Hamad Stadium in Doha.