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OKC Energy vs Sporting KC II — USL Championship 2018

OKC Energy
OKC Energy
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sporting KC II
Sporting KC II
6/24/2021USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 13Taft Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

OKC Energy47%
×Draw25%
Sporting KC II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OKC Energy
1.62
Sporting KC II
1.19

OKC Energy creates 36% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 66 away

creates per match

OKC Energy
1.05
Sporting KC II
1.18

allows per match

OKC Energy
1.21
Sporting KC II
2.18

finishing

OKC Energy+0.00on par
Sporting KC II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OKC Energy ↓

Sporting KC II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

OKC Energy or draw
72%
OKC Energy or Sporting KC II
75%
Draw or Sporting KC II
53%

Winning margin

OKC Energy wins by 2+
25%
Sporting KC II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

OKC Energy 1+ goals
80%
OKC Energy 2+ goals
48%
OKC Energy 3+ goals
22%
Sporting KC II 1+ goals
70%
Sporting KC II 2+ goals
33%
Sporting KC II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

OKC Energy (draw refunded)
63%
Sporting KC II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OKC Energy at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.21 · 58 matches

Sporting KC II away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.18 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OKC Energy attack 1.05 + Sporting KC II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.62

Sporting KC II attack 1.18 + OKC Energy defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

OKC Energy scores more
47%
level
25%
Sporting KC II scores more
28%

OKC Energy at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "OKC Energy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: OKC Energy 1–0 Sporting KC II

OKC Energy beat Sporting KC II 1-0 in USL Championship on June 24, 2021.

The match was played at Taft Stadium in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.