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OKC Energy vs San Antonio — USL Championship 2018

OKC Energy
OKC Energy
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
San Antonio
San Antonio
8/9/2020USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 10Taft Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

OKC Energy36%
×Draw27%
San Antonio37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OKC Energy
1.24
San Antonio
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 134 away

creates per match

OKC Energy
1.05
San Antonio
1.28

allows per match

OKC Energy
1.21
San Antonio
1.43

finishing

OKC Energy+0.00on par
San Antonio+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OKC Energy ↓

San Antonio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

OKC Energy or draw
63%
OKC Energy or San Antonio
73%
Draw or San Antonio
64%

Winning margin

OKC Energy wins by 2+
16%
San Antonio wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

OKC Energy 1+ goals
71%
OKC Energy 2+ goals
35%
OKC Energy 3+ goals
13%
San Antonio 1+ goals
71%
San Antonio 2+ goals
36%
San Antonio 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

OKC Energy (draw refunded)
50%
San Antonio (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OKC Energy at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.21 · 58 matches

San Antonio away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.43 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OKC Energy attack 1.05 + San Antonio defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.24

San Antonio attack 1.28 + OKC Energy defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

OKC Energy scores more
36%
level
27%
San Antonio scores more
37%

San Antonio at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "San Antonio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: OKC Energy 0–3 San Antonio

San Antonio beat OKC Energy 3-0 in USL Championship on August 9, 2020.

The match was played at Taft Stadium in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.