Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

OKC Energy vs Rio Grande Valley — USL Championship 2018

OKC Energy
OKC Energy
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Rio Grande Valley
Rio Grande Valley
10/13/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 60Taft Stadium (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

OKC Energy40%
×Draw26%
Rio Grande Valley34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OKC Energy
1.35
Rio Grande Valley
1.23

OKC Energy creates 10% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 93 away

creates per match

OKC Energy
1.05
Rio Grande Valley
1.25

allows per match

OKC Energy
1.21
Rio Grande Valley
1.66

finishing

OKC Energy+0.00on par
Rio Grande Valley+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OKC Energy ↓

Rio Grande Valley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

OKC Energy or draw
66%
OKC Energy or Rio Grande Valley
74%
Draw or Rio Grande Valley
60%

Winning margin

OKC Energy wins by 2+
18%
Rio Grande Valley wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

OKC Energy 1+ goals
74%
OKC Energy 2+ goals
39%
OKC Energy 3+ goals
15%
Rio Grande Valley 1+ goals
71%
Rio Grande Valley 2+ goals
35%
Rio Grande Valley 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

OKC Energy (draw refunded)
54%
Rio Grande Valley (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OKC Energy at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.21 · 58 matches

Rio Grande Valley away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.66 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OKC Energy attack 1.05 + Rio Grande Valley defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.35

Rio Grande Valley attack 1.25 + OKC Energy defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

OKC Energy scores more
40%
level
26%
Rio Grande Valley scores more
34%

OKC Energy at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "OKC Energy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: OKC Energy 0–2 Rio Grande Valley

Rio Grande Valley beat OKC Energy 2-0 in USL Championship on October 13, 2019.

The match was played at Taft Stadium (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma).