OKC Energy 0–3 Phoenix Rising: Result & Stats

OKC Energy

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Phoenix Rising

5/10/2018

USL Championship · Round 14Taft Stadium (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

OKC Energy36%

×Draw27%

Phoenix Rising37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OKC EnergyExpected goals in this matchPhoenix Rising

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.30

OKC Energy

1.28

Phoenix Rising

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 136 away

1.05

creates per match

1.40

1.21

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

OKC Energy

1.05

Phoenix Rising

1.40

allows per match

OKC Energy

1.21

Phoenix Rising

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

OKC Energy+0.00on par

Phoenix Rising+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OKC Energy ↓

Phoenix Rising →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

OKC Energy or draw

63%

OKC Energy or Phoenix Rising

73%

Draw or Phoenix Rising

64%

Winning margin

OKC Energy wins by 2+

16%

Phoenix Rising wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

OKC Energy 1+ goals

72%

OKC Energy 2+ goals

37%

OKC Energy 3+ goals

14%

Phoenix Rising 1+ goals

73%

Phoenix Rising 2+ goals

37%

Phoenix Rising 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

OKC Energy (draw refunded)

49%

Phoenix Rising (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OKC Energy at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.21 · 58 matches

Phoenix Rising away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.51 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OKC Energy attack 1.05 + Phoenix Rising defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.28

Phoenix Rising attack 1.40 + OKC Energy defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

OKC Energy scores more

36%

level

27%

Phoenix Rising scores more

37%

Phoenix Rising at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Phoenix Rising will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff