OKC Energy 0–1 Orange County SC: Result & Stats

OKC Energy

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Orange County SC

3/29/2018

USL Championship · Round 4Taft Stadium (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

OKC Energy37%

×Draw27%

Orange County SC36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OKC EnergyExpected goals in this matchOrange County SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.28

OKC Energy

1.29

Orange County SC

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 138 away

1.05

creates per match

1.35

1.21

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

OKC Energy

1.05

Orange County SC

1.35

allows per match

OKC Energy

1.21

Orange County SC

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

OKC Energy+0.00on par

Orange County SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OKC Energy ↓

Orange County SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

OKC Energy or draw

64%

OKC Energy or Orange County SC

73%

Draw or Orange County SC

63%

Winning margin

OKC Energy wins by 2+

16%

Orange County SC wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

OKC Energy 1+ goals

72%

OKC Energy 2+ goals

37%

OKC Energy 3+ goals

14%

Orange County SC 1+ goals

72%

Orange County SC 2+ goals

37%

Orange County SC 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

OKC Energy (draw refunded)

50%

Orange County SC (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OKC Energy at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.21 · 58 matches

Orange County SC away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.53 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OKC Energy attack 1.05 + Orange County SC defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.29

Orange County SC attack 1.35 + OKC Energy defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

OKC Energy scores more

37%

level

27%

Orange County SC scores more

36%

OKC Energy at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "OKC Energy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff