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OKC Energy vs Las Vegas Lights — USL Championship 2018

OKC Energy
OKC Energy
FT
6 – 4
HT: 2 – 1
Las Vegas Lights
Las Vegas Lights
7/12/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 31Taft Stadium (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

OKC Energy47%
×Draw25%
Las Vegas Lights28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OKC Energy
1.58
Las Vegas Lights
1.15

OKC Energy creates 37% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 133 away

creates per match

OKC Energy
1.05
Las Vegas Lights
1.09

allows per match

OKC Energy
1.21
Las Vegas Lights
2.11

finishing

OKC Energy+0.00on par
Las Vegas Lights+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OKC Energy ↓

Las Vegas Lights →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

OKC Energy or draw
72%
OKC Energy or Las Vegas Lights
75%
Draw or Las Vegas Lights
53%

Winning margin

OKC Energy wins by 2+
24%
Las Vegas Lights wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

OKC Energy 1+ goals
79%
OKC Energy 2+ goals
47%
OKC Energy 3+ goals
21%
Las Vegas Lights 1+ goals
68%
Las Vegas Lights 2+ goals
32%
Las Vegas Lights 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

OKC Energy (draw refunded)
63%
Las Vegas Lights (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OKC Energy at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.21 · 58 matches

Las Vegas Lights away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.11 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OKC Energy attack 1.05 + Las Vegas Lights defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.58

Las Vegas Lights attack 1.09 + OKC Energy defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

OKC Energy scores more
47%
level
25%
Las Vegas Lights scores more
28%

OKC Energy at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "OKC Energy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

OKC Energy 6 – 4 Las Vegas Lights

OKC Energy beat Las Vegas Lights 6-4 in USL Championship on July 12, 2018.

The match was played at Taft Stadium (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma).