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OKC Energy vs El Paso Locomotive — USL Championship 2018

OKC Energy
OKC Energy
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
El Paso Locomotive
El Paso Locomotive
7/7/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 32Taft Stadium (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

OKC Energy37%
×Draw28%
El Paso Locomotive35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OKC Energy
1.21
El Paso Locomotive
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 115 away

creates per match

OKC Energy
1.05
El Paso Locomotive
1.14

allows per match

OKC Energy
1.21
El Paso Locomotive
1.36

finishing

OKC Energy+0.00on par
El Paso Locomotive+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OKC Energy ↓

El Paso Locomotive →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

OKC Energy or draw
65%
OKC Energy or El Paso Locomotive
72%
Draw or El Paso Locomotive
63%

Winning margin

OKC Energy wins by 2+
16%
El Paso Locomotive wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

OKC Energy 1+ goals
70%
OKC Energy 2+ goals
34%
OKC Energy 3+ goals
12%
El Paso Locomotive 1+ goals
69%
El Paso Locomotive 2+ goals
33%
El Paso Locomotive 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

OKC Energy (draw refunded)
51%
El Paso Locomotive (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OKC Energy at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.21 · 58 matches

El Paso Locomotive away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.36 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OKC Energy attack 1.05 + El Paso Locomotive defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.21

El Paso Locomotive attack 1.14 + OKC Energy defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

OKC Energy scores more
37%
level
28%
El Paso Locomotive scores more
35%

OKC Energy at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "OKC Energy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

OKC Energy 1 – 1 El Paso Locomotive

OKC Energy and El Paso Locomotive drew 1-1 in USL Championship on July 7, 2019.

The match was played at Taft Stadium (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma).