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OJC Rosmalen vs TOGB — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

OJC Rosmalen
OJC Rosmalen
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
TOGB
TOGB
1/13/2024Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 18Complex Groote Wielen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

OJC Rosmalen42%
×Draw23%
TOGB35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OJC Rosmalen
1.75
TOGB
1.58

OJC Rosmalen creates 11% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 68 away

creates per match

OJC Rosmalen
1.65
TOGB
1.40

allows per match

OJC Rosmalen
1.76
TOGB
1.84

finishing

OJC Rosmalen+0.00on par
TOGB+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OJC Rosmalen ↓

TOGB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

OJC Rosmalen or draw
65%
OJC Rosmalen or TOGB
77%
Draw or TOGB
58%

Winning margin

OJC Rosmalen wins by 2+
22%
TOGB wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

OJC Rosmalen 1+ goals
83%
OJC Rosmalen 2+ goals
52%
OJC Rosmalen 3+ goals
25%
TOGB 1+ goals
79%
TOGB 2+ goals
47%
TOGB 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

OJC Rosmalen (draw refunded)
55%
TOGB (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OJC Rosmalen at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.76 · 51 matches

TOGB away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.84 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OJC Rosmalen attack 1.65 + TOGB defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.75

TOGB attack 1.40 + OJC Rosmalen defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

OJC Rosmalen scores more
42%
level
23%
TOGB scores more
35%

OJC Rosmalen at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "OJC Rosmalen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: OJC Rosmalen 1–2 TOGB

TOGB beat OJC Rosmalen 2-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at Complex Groote Wielen in Rosmalen.