OJC Rosmalen 3–2 Smitshoek: Result & Stats

OJC Rosmalen

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Smitshoek

1/18/2025

Derde Divisie - Sunday · Group B - 19Complex Groote Wielen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

OJC Rosmalen51%

×Draw20%

Smitshoek29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OJC RosmalenExpected goals in this matchSmitshoek

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.76

OJC Rosmalen

2.35

Smitshoek

1.76

OJC Rosmalen creates 34% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

1.65

creates per match

1.76

allows per match

3.06

creates per match

OJC Rosmalen

1.65

Smitshoek

1.76

allows per match

OJC Rosmalen

1.76

Smitshoek

3.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

OJC Rosmalen+0.00on par

Smitshoek+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OJC Rosmalen ↓

Smitshoek →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

OJC Rosmalen or draw

71%

OJC Rosmalen or Smitshoek

80%

Draw or Smitshoek

49%

Winning margin

OJC Rosmalen wins by 2+

31%

Smitshoek wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

OJC Rosmalen 1+ goals

90%

OJC Rosmalen 2+ goals

68%

OJC Rosmalen 3+ goals

41%

Smitshoek 1+ goals

83%

Smitshoek 2+ goals

52%

Smitshoek 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

OJC Rosmalen (draw refunded)

64%

Smitshoek (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OJC Rosmalen at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.76 · 51 matches

Smitshoek away — creates 1.76, concedes 3.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OJC Rosmalen attack 1.65 + Smitshoek defence 3.06 → ÷2 → 2.35

Smitshoek attack 1.76 + OJC Rosmalen defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

OJC Rosmalen scores more

51%

level

20%

Smitshoek scores more

29%

OJC Rosmalen at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "OJC Rosmalen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff