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OJC Rosmalen vs OSS '20 — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

OJC Rosmalen
OJC Rosmalen
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
OSS '20
OSS '20
11/18/2023Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 13Complex Groote Wielen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

OJC Rosmalen39%
×Draw23%
OSS '2038%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OJC Rosmalen
1.65
OSS '20
1.62

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 65 away

creates per match

OJC Rosmalen
1.65
OSS '20
1.48

allows per match

OJC Rosmalen
1.76
OSS '20
1.66

finishing

OJC Rosmalen+0.00on par
OSS '20+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OJC Rosmalen ↓

OSS '20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

OJC Rosmalen or draw
62%
OJC Rosmalen or OSS '20
77%
Draw or OSS '20
61%

Winning margin

OJC Rosmalen wins by 2+
20%
OSS '20 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

OJC Rosmalen 1+ goals
81%
OJC Rosmalen 2+ goals
49%
OJC Rosmalen 3+ goals
23%
OSS '20 1+ goals
80%
OSS '20 2+ goals
48%
OSS '20 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

OJC Rosmalen (draw refunded)
51%
OSS '20 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OJC Rosmalen at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.76 · 51 matches

OSS '20 away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.66 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OJC Rosmalen attack 1.65 + OSS '20 defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.65

OSS '20 attack 1.48 + OJC Rosmalen defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

OJC Rosmalen scores more
39%
level
23%
OSS '20 scores more
38%

OJC Rosmalen at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "OJC Rosmalen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: OJC Rosmalen vs OSS '20

OJC Rosmalen and OSS '20 drew 2-2 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Complex Groote Wielen in Rosmalen.