OJC Rosmalen 1–0 DEM: Result & Stats

OJC Rosmalen

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

DEM

4/16/2023

Derde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 29Complex Groote Wielen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

OJC Rosmalen40%

×Draw24%

DEM36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OJC RosmalenExpected goals in this matchDEM

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.50

OJC Rosmalen

1.58

DEM

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 48 away

1.65

creates per match

1.23

1.76

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

OJC Rosmalen

1.65

DEM

1.23

allows per match

OJC Rosmalen

1.76

DEM

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

OJC Rosmalen+0.00on par

DEM+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OJC Rosmalen ↓

DEM →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

OJC Rosmalen or draw

64%

OJC Rosmalen or DEM

76%

Draw or DEM

60%

Winning margin

OJC Rosmalen wins by 2+

20%

DEM wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

OJC Rosmalen 1+ goals

79%

OJC Rosmalen 2+ goals

47%

OJC Rosmalen 3+ goals

21%

DEM 1+ goals

78%

DEM 2+ goals

44%

DEM 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

OJC Rosmalen (draw refunded)

52%

DEM (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OJC Rosmalen at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.76 · 51 matches

DEM away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.52 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OJC Rosmalen attack 1.65 + DEM defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.58

DEM attack 1.23 + OJC Rosmalen defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

OJC Rosmalen scores more

40%

level

24%

DEM scores more

36%

OJC Rosmalen at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "OJC Rosmalen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff