OJC Rosmalen 0–0 Blauw Geel: Result & Stats

OJC Rosmalen

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Blauw Geel

3/11/2023

Derde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 25Complex Groote Wielen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

OJC Rosmalen36%

×Draw23%

Blauw Geel41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OJC RosmalenExpected goals in this matchBlauw Geel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.70

OJC Rosmalen

1.59

Blauw Geel

1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 100 away

1.65

creates per match

1.64

1.76

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

OJC Rosmalen

1.65

Blauw Geel

1.64

allows per match

OJC Rosmalen

1.76

Blauw Geel

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

OJC Rosmalen+0.00on par

Blauw Geel+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OJC Rosmalen ↓

Blauw Geel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

OJC Rosmalen or draw

59%

OJC Rosmalen or Blauw Geel

77%

Draw or Blauw Geel

64%

Winning margin

OJC Rosmalen wins by 2+

18%

Blauw Geel wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

OJC Rosmalen 1+ goals

80%

OJC Rosmalen 2+ goals

47%

OJC Rosmalen 3+ goals

21%

Blauw Geel 1+ goals

82%

Blauw Geel 2+ goals

51%

Blauw Geel 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

OJC Rosmalen (draw refunded)

47%

Blauw Geel (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OJC Rosmalen at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.76 · 51 matches

Blauw Geel away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.53 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OJC Rosmalen attack 1.65 + Blauw Geel defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.59

Blauw Geel attack 1.64 + OJC Rosmalen defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

OJC Rosmalen scores more

36%

level

23%

Blauw Geel scores more

41%

Blauw Geel at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Blauw Geel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff