Oita Trinita 2–2 Tokyo Verdy: Result & Stats

Oita Trinita

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Tokyo Verdy

7/30/2022

J2 League · Round 29Showa Denko Dome Ōita

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Oita Trinita38%

×Draw27%

Tokyo Verdy35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oita TrinitaExpected goals in this matchTokyo Verdy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.24

Oita Trinita

1.29

Tokyo Verdy

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 130 away

1.33

creates per match

1.38

1.10

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Oita Trinita

1.33

Tokyo Verdy

1.38

allows per match

Oita Trinita

1.10

Tokyo Verdy

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oita Trinita+0.00on par

Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oita Trinita ↓

Tokyo Verdy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Oita Trinita or draw

65%

Oita Trinita or Tokyo Verdy

73%

Draw or Tokyo Verdy

62%

Winning margin

Oita Trinita wins by 2+

17%

Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Oita Trinita 1+ goals

72%

Oita Trinita 2+ goals

37%

Oita Trinita 3+ goals

14%

Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals

71%

Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals

35%

Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Oita Trinita (draw refunded)

52%

Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oita Trinita at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.10 · 102 matches

Tokyo Verdy away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.25 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oita Trinita attack 1.33 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Tokyo Verdy attack 1.38 + Oita Trinita defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Oita Trinita scores more

38%

level

27%

Tokyo Verdy scores more

35%

Oita Trinita at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Oita Trinita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff