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Oita Trinita vs Machida Zelvia — J2 League 2018

Oita Trinita
Oita Trinita
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
6/5/2022J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 20Showa Denko Dome Ōita

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Oita Trinita37%
×Draw27%
Machida Zelvia36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oita Trinita
1.23
Machida Zelvia
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 127 away

creates per match

Oita Trinita
1.33
Machida Zelvia
1.31

allows per match

Oita Trinita
1.10
Machida Zelvia
1.12

finishing

Oita Trinita+0.00on par
Machida Zelvia+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oita Trinita ↓

Machida Zelvia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Oita Trinita or draw
64%
Oita Trinita or Machida Zelvia
73%
Draw or Machida Zelvia
63%

Winning margin

Oita Trinita wins by 2+
16%
Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Oita Trinita 1+ goals
71%
Oita Trinita 2+ goals
35%
Oita Trinita 3+ goals
13%
Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
70%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
34%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Oita Trinita (draw refunded)
51%
Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oita Trinita at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.10 · 102 matches

Machida Zelvia away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.12 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oita Trinita attack 1.33 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.23

Machida Zelvia attack 1.31 + Oita Trinita defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Oita Trinita scores more
37%
level
27%
Machida Zelvia scores more
36%

Oita Trinita at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Oita Trinita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oita Trinita vs Machida Zelvia

Oita Trinita beat Machida Zelvia 3-1 in J2 League on June 5, 2022.

The match was played at Showa Denko Dome Ōita in Oita.