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Oita Trinita vs Fujieda MYFC — J2 League 2018

Oita Trinita
Oita Trinita
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Fujieda MYFC
Fujieda MYFC
3/23/2025J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 6Resonac Dome Oita

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Oita Trinita46%
×Draw26%
Fujieda MYFC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oita Trinita
1.50
Fujieda MYFC
1.12

Oita Trinita creates 34% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 59 away

creates per match

Oita Trinita
1.33
Fujieda MYFC
1.12

allows per match

Oita Trinita
1.12
Fujieda MYFC
1.68

finishing

Oita Trinita+0.00on par
Fujieda MYFC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oita Trinita ↓

Fujieda MYFC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Oita Trinita or draw
72%
Oita Trinita or Fujieda MYFC
74%
Draw or Fujieda MYFC
54%

Winning margin

Oita Trinita wins by 2+
23%
Fujieda MYFC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Oita Trinita 1+ goals
78%
Oita Trinita 2+ goals
44%
Oita Trinita 3+ goals
19%
Fujieda MYFC 1+ goals
67%
Fujieda MYFC 2+ goals
31%
Fujieda MYFC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Oita Trinita (draw refunded)
62%
Fujieda MYFC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oita Trinita at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.12 · 103 matches

Fujieda MYFC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.68 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oita Trinita attack 1.33 + Fujieda MYFC defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.50

Fujieda MYFC attack 1.12 + Oita Trinita defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Oita Trinita scores more
46%
level
26%
Fujieda MYFC scores more
28%

Oita Trinita at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Oita Trinita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Oita Trinita 1–1 Fujieda MYFC

Oita Trinita and Fujieda MYFC drew 1-1 in J2 League on March 23, 2025.

The match was played at Resonac Dome Oita in Oita.