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Oissel vs Quevilly — Coupe de France 2018

Oissel
Oissel
Pens
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Quevilly
Quevilly
L. Fofana 90'
M. Fauvel 83'
I. Bouneb 88'
J. Leborgne 10' (pen)
11/15/2025Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 1/128-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Oissel20%
×Draw27%
Quevilly53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oissel
0.79
Quevilly
1.45

Quevilly creates 84% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

creates per match

Oissel
0.67
Quevilly
1.90

allows per match

Oissel
1.00
Quevilly
0.90

finishing

Oissel+0.00on par
Quevilly+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 61Over: 3961%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 58Yes: 4258%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oissel ↓

Quevilly →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Oissel or draw
47%
Oissel or Quevilly
73%
Draw or Quevilly
80%

Winning margin

Oissel wins by 2+
6%
Quevilly wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Oissel 1+ goals
55%
Oissel 2+ goals
19%
Oissel 3+ goals
5%
Quevilly 1+ goals
77%
Quevilly 2+ goals
42%
Quevilly 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Oissel (draw refunded)
28%
Quevilly (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oissel at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Quevilly away — creates 1.90, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oissel attack 0.67 + Quevilly defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.79

Quevilly attack 1.90 + Oissel defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Oissel scores more
20%
level
27%
Quevilly scores more
53%

Quevilly at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Quevilly will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
J. LeborgnePenalty
83'
M. Fauvel
87'
88'
I. Bouneb
90'
L. Fofana
Oissel
Quevilly
D. Dillain
Manager: D. Dillain
Fabien Valéri
Manager: Fabien Valéri

Coupe de France: Oissel 2–2 Quevilly

Oissel and Quevilly drew 2-2 in Coupe de France on November 15, 2025.

Goals: J. Leborgne (10' pen), M. Fauvel (83'), I. Bouneb (88'), L. Fofana (90').