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Ohrid vs Voska Sport — Second League 2019

Ohrid
Ohrid
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Voska Sport
Voska Sport
5/6/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 28Stadion Biljanini Izvori

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ohrid32%
×Draw24%
Voska Sport44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ohrid
1.36
Voska Sport
1.63

Voska Sport creates 20% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 15 away

creates per match

Ohrid
1.79
Voska Sport
2.47

allows per match

Ohrid
0.79
Voska Sport
0.93

finishing

Ohrid+0.00on par
Voska Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ohrid ↓

Voska Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Ohrid or draw
56%
Ohrid or Voska Sport
76%
Draw or Voska Sport
68%

Winning margin

Ohrid wins by 2+
14%
Voska Sport wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Ohrid 1+ goals
74%
Ohrid 2+ goals
39%
Ohrid 3+ goals
16%
Voska Sport 1+ goals
80%
Voska Sport 2+ goals
48%
Voska Sport 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Ohrid (draw refunded)
42%
Voska Sport (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ohrid at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.79 · 82 matches

Voska Sport away — creates 2.47, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ohrid attack 1.79 + Voska Sport defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.36

Voska Sport attack 2.47 + Ohrid defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ohrid scores more
32%
level
24%
Voska Sport scores more
44%

Voska Sport at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Voska Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ohrid vs Voska Sport

Ohrid and Voska Sport drew 2-2 in Second League on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Biljanini Izvori in Ohrid.