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Ohrid vs Veleshta — Second League 2019

Ohrid
Ohrid
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Veleshta
Veleshta
4/24/2021Second LeagueSecond League · West - 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Ohrid55%
×Draw25%
Veleshta20%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ohrid
1.59
Veleshta
0.84

Ohrid creates 89% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 16 away

creates per match

Ohrid
1.80
Veleshta
0.88

allows per match

Ohrid
0.80
Veleshta
1.38

finishing

Ohrid+0.00on par
Veleshta+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ohrid ↓

Veleshta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ohrid or draw
80%
Ohrid or Veleshta
75%
Draw or Veleshta
45%

Winning margin

Ohrid wins by 2+
29%
Veleshta wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ohrid 1+ goals
80%
Ohrid 2+ goals
47%
Ohrid 3+ goals
21%
Veleshta 1+ goals
57%
Veleshta 2+ goals
21%
Veleshta 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ohrid (draw refunded)
74%
Veleshta (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ohrid at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.80 · 83 matches

Veleshta away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ohrid attack 1.80 + Veleshta defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.59

Veleshta attack 0.88 + Ohrid defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ohrid scores more
55%
level
25%
Veleshta scores more
20%

Ohrid at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ohrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ohrid vs Veleshta

Ohrid beat Veleshta 1-0 in Second League on April 24, 2021.