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Ohrid vs Renova — Cup 2020

Ohrid
Ohrid
FT
0 – 4
Renova
Renova
9/23/2020CupCup · 1st RoundStadion Biljanini Izvori

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ohrid30%
×Draw22%
Renova48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ohrid
1.45
Renova
1.90

Renova creates 31% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Ohrid
1.40
Renova
2.00

allows per match

Ohrid
1.80
Renova
1.50

finishing

Ohrid+0.00on par
Renova+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ohrid ↓

Renova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Ohrid or draw
52%
Ohrid or Renova
78%
Draw or Renova
70%

Winning margin

Ohrid wins by 2+
13%
Renova wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Ohrid 1+ goals
77%
Ohrid 2+ goals
42%
Ohrid 3+ goals
18%
Renova 1+ goals
85%
Renova 2+ goals
56%
Renova 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Ohrid (draw refunded)
38%
Renova (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ohrid at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Renova away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ohrid attack 1.40 + Renova defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.45

Renova attack 2.00 + Ohrid defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ohrid scores more
30%
level
22%
Renova scores more
48%

Renova at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Renova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ohrid vs Renova

Renova beat Ohrid 4-0 in Cup on September 23, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Biljanini Izvori in Ohrid.