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Ohrid vs Osogovo — Second League 2019

Ohrid
Ohrid
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Osogovo
Osogovo
4/21/2025Second LeagueSecond League · Round 25Stadion Biljanini Izvori

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Ohrid59%
×Draw23%
Osogovo18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ohrid
1.83
Osogovo
0.91

Ohrid creates 101% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 66 away

creates per match

Ohrid
1.79
Osogovo
1.02

allows per match

Ohrid
0.79
Osogovo
1.86

finishing

Ohrid+0.00on par
Osogovo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ohrid ↓

Osogovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ohrid or draw
82%
Ohrid or Osogovo
77%
Draw or Osogovo
41%

Winning margin

Ohrid wins by 2+
34%
Osogovo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ohrid 1+ goals
84%
Ohrid 2+ goals
54%
Ohrid 3+ goals
28%
Osogovo 1+ goals
60%
Osogovo 2+ goals
23%
Osogovo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ohrid (draw refunded)
76%
Osogovo (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ohrid at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.79 · 82 matches

Osogovo away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.86 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ohrid attack 1.79 + Osogovo defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.83

Osogovo attack 1.02 + Ohrid defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Ohrid scores more
59%
level
23%
Osogovo scores more
18%

Ohrid at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Ohrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Ohrid 2–2 Osogovo

Ohrid and Osogovo drew 2-2 in Second League on April 21, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Biljanini Izvori in Ohrid.