Ohrid 0–0 Kozuv Gevgelija: Result & Stats

Ohrid

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kozuv Gevgelija

9/20/2025

Second League · Round 5Stadion Biljanini Izvori

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Ohrid54%

×Draw26%

Kozuv Gevgelija20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OhridExpected goals in this matchKozuv Gevgelija

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.84

Ohrid

1.54

Kozuv Gevgelija

0.84

Ohrid creates 83% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 81 away

1.79

creates per match

0.89

0.79

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Ohrid

1.79

Kozuv Gevgelija

0.89

allows per match

Ohrid

0.79

Kozuv Gevgelija

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ohrid+0.00on par

Kozuv Gevgelija+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ohrid ↓

Kozuv Gevgelija →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ohrid or draw

80%

Ohrid or Kozuv Gevgelija

74%

Draw or Kozuv Gevgelija

46%

Winning margin

Ohrid wins by 2+

28%

Kozuv Gevgelija wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Ohrid 1+ goals

79%

Ohrid 2+ goals

45%

Ohrid 3+ goals

20%

Kozuv Gevgelija 1+ goals

57%

Kozuv Gevgelija 2+ goals

21%

Kozuv Gevgelija 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ohrid (draw refunded)

72%

Kozuv Gevgelija (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ohrid at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.79 · 82 matches

Kozuv Gevgelija away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.30 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ohrid attack 1.79 + Kozuv Gevgelija defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.54

Kozuv Gevgelija attack 0.89 + Ohrid defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Ohrid scores more

54%

level

26%

Kozuv Gevgelija scores more

20%

Ohrid at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ohrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff