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Ohrid vs Bashkimi Kumanovo — Second League 2019

Ohrid
Ohrid
FT
0 – 2
Bashkimi Kumanovo
Bashkimi Kumanovo
2/17/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 16Stadion Biljanini Izvori

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ohrid50%
×Draw27%
Bashkimi Kumanovo23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ohrid
1.43
Bashkimi Kumanovo
0.88

Ohrid creates 63% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 30 away

creates per match

Ohrid
1.79
Bashkimi Kumanovo
0.97

allows per match

Ohrid
0.79
Bashkimi Kumanovo
1.07

finishing

Ohrid+0.00on par
Bashkimi Kumanovo+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ohrid ↓

Bashkimi Kumanovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ohrid or draw
77%
Ohrid or Bashkimi Kumanovo
73%
Draw or Bashkimi Kumanovo
50%

Winning margin

Ohrid wins by 2+
25%
Bashkimi Kumanovo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ohrid 1+ goals
76%
Ohrid 2+ goals
42%
Ohrid 3+ goals
17%
Bashkimi Kumanovo 1+ goals
59%
Bashkimi Kumanovo 2+ goals
22%
Bashkimi Kumanovo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ohrid (draw refunded)
68%
Bashkimi Kumanovo (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ohrid at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.79 · 82 matches

Bashkimi Kumanovo away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.07 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ohrid attack 1.79 + Bashkimi Kumanovo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.43

Bashkimi Kumanovo attack 0.97 + Ohrid defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ohrid scores more
50%
level
27%
Bashkimi Kumanovo scores more
23%

Ohrid at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ohrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Ohrid 0–2 Bashkimi Kumanovo

Bashkimi Kumanovo beat Ohrid 2-0 in Second League on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Biljanini Izvori in Ohrid.