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Ohod vs Hetten FC — Division 1 2018

Ohod
Ohod
FT
1 – 0
Hetten FC
Hetten FC
9/30/2019Division 1Division 1 · Round 7Prince Mohammed bin Abdul Aziz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ohod55%
×Draw24%
Hetten FC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ohod
1.75
Hetten FC
0.98

Ohod creates 79% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 19 away

creates per match

Ohod
1.18
Hetten FC
0.89

allows per match

Ohod
1.07
Hetten FC
2.32

finishing

Ohod+0.00on par
Hetten FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ohod ↓

Hetten FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ohod or draw
79%
Ohod or Hetten FC
76%
Draw or Hetten FC
45%

Winning margin

Ohod wins by 2+
31%
Hetten FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ohod 1+ goals
83%
Ohod 2+ goals
52%
Ohod 3+ goals
25%
Hetten FC 1+ goals
62%
Hetten FC 2+ goals
26%
Hetten FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ohod (draw refunded)
72%
Hetten FC (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ohod at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.07 · 108 matches

Hetten FC away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ohod attack 1.18 + Hetten FC defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 1.75

Hetten FC attack 0.89 + Ohod defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ohod scores more
55%
level
24%
Hetten FC scores more
21%

Ohod at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ohod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ohod vs Hetten FC

Ohod beat Hetten FC 1-0 in Division 1 on September 30, 2019.

The match was played at Prince Mohammed bin Abdul Aziz Stadium in Medina.