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Ohod vs Al Shabab — Pro League 2018

Ohod
Ohod
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Al Shabab
Al Shabab
3/30/2019Pro LeaguePro League · Round 25Prince Mohammed bin Abdul Aziz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ohod31%
×Draw26%
Al Shabab44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ohod
1.20
Al Shabab
1.49

Al Shabab creates 24% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 126 away

creates per match

Ohod
1.07
Al Shabab
1.45

allows per match

Ohod
1.53
Al Shabab
1.33

finishing

Ohod+0.00on par
Al Shabab+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ohod ↓

Al Shabab →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ohod or draw
56%
Ohod or Al Shabab
74%
Draw or Al Shabab
69%

Winning margin

Ohod wins by 2+
13%
Al Shabab wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Ohod 1+ goals
70%
Ohod 2+ goals
34%
Ohod 3+ goals
12%
Al Shabab 1+ goals
77%
Al Shabab 2+ goals
44%
Al Shabab 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Ohod (draw refunded)
41%
Al Shabab (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ohod at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Al Shabab away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.33 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ohod attack 1.07 + Al Shabab defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.20

Al Shabab attack 1.45 + Ohod defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ohod scores more
31%
level
26%
Al Shabab scores more
44%

Al Shabab at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al Shabab will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ohod vs Al Shabab

Al Shabab beat Ohod 2-1 in Pro League on March 30, 2019.

The match was played at Prince Mohammed bin Abdul Aziz Stadium in Medina.