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Ohod vs Al Najoom — Division 1 2018

Ohod
Ohod
FT
1 – 1
Al Najoom
Al Najoom
1/25/2021Division 1Division 1 · Round 17Prince Mohammed bin Abdul Aziz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Ohod50%
×Draw25%
Al Najoom25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ohod
1.55
Al Najoom
1.02

Ohod creates 52% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 41 away

creates per match

Ohod
1.18
Al Najoom
0.98

allows per match

Ohod
1.07
Al Najoom
1.93

finishing

Ohod+0.00on par
Al Najoom+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ohod ↓

Al Najoom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ohod or draw
75%
Ohod or Al Najoom
75%
Draw or Al Najoom
50%

Winning margin

Ohod wins by 2+
25%
Al Najoom wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ohod 1+ goals
79%
Ohod 2+ goals
46%
Ohod 3+ goals
20%
Al Najoom 1+ goals
64%
Al Najoom 2+ goals
27%
Al Najoom 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ohod (draw refunded)
67%
Al Najoom (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ohod at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.07 · 108 matches

Al Najoom away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.93 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ohod attack 1.18 + Al Najoom defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.55

Al Najoom attack 0.98 + Ohod defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ohod scores more
50%
level
25%
Al Najoom scores more
25%

Ohod at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ohod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ohod 1 – 1 Al Najoom

Ohod and Al Najoom drew 1-1 in Division 1 on January 25, 2021.

The match was played at Prince Mohammed bin Abdul Aziz Stadium in Medina.