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Ohod vs Al Nahdha — Division 1 2018

Ohod
Ohod
FT
0 – 1
Al Nahdha
Al Nahdha
3/11/2020Division 1Division 1 · Round 28Prince Mohammed bin Abdul Aziz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Ohod44%
×Draw28%
Al Nahdha28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ohod
1.29
Al Nahdha
0.96

Ohod creates 34% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 60 away

creates per match

Ohod
1.18
Al Nahdha
0.85

allows per match

Ohod
1.07
Al Nahdha
1.40

finishing

Ohod+0.00on par
Al Nahdha+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ohod ↓

Al Nahdha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ohod or draw
72%
Ohod or Al Nahdha
72%
Draw or Al Nahdha
56%

Winning margin

Ohod wins by 2+
20%
Al Nahdha wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ohod 1+ goals
72%
Ohod 2+ goals
37%
Ohod 3+ goals
14%
Al Nahdha 1+ goals
62%
Al Nahdha 2+ goals
25%
Al Nahdha 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ohod (draw refunded)
61%
Al Nahdha (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ohod at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.07 · 108 matches

Al Nahdha away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.40 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ohod attack 1.18 + Al Nahdha defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.29

Al Nahdha attack 0.85 + Ohod defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ohod scores more
44%
level
28%
Al Nahdha scores more
28%

Ohod at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ohod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ohod vs Al Nahdha

Al Nahdha beat Ohod 1-0 in Division 1 on March 11, 2020.

The match was played at Prince Mohammed bin Abdul Aziz Stadium in Medina.