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Ohod vs Al-Faisaly FC — Division 1 2018

Ohod
Ohod
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 2
Al-Faisaly FC
Al-Faisaly FC
5/18/2025Division 1Division 1 · Round 34Ohod Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Ohod34%
×Draw27%
Al-Faisaly FC39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ohod
1.18
Al-Faisaly FC
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 108 home / 68 away

creates per match

Ohod
1.18
Al-Faisaly FC
1.47

allows per match

Ohod
1.07
Al-Faisaly FC
1.18

finishing

Ohod+0.00on par
Al-Faisaly FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ohod ↓

Al-Faisaly FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ohod or draw
61%
Ohod or Al-Faisaly FC
73%
Draw or Al-Faisaly FC
66%

Winning margin

Ohod wins by 2+
14%
Al-Faisaly FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Ohod 1+ goals
69%
Ohod 2+ goals
33%
Ohod 3+ goals
12%
Al-Faisaly FC 1+ goals
72%
Al-Faisaly FC 2+ goals
36%
Al-Faisaly FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ohod (draw refunded)
47%
Al-Faisaly FC (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ohod at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.07 · 108 matches

Al-Faisaly FC away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.18 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ohod attack 1.18 + Al-Faisaly FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.18

Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.47 + Ohod defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ohod scores more
34%
level
27%
Al-Faisaly FC scores more
39%

Al-Faisaly FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al-Faisaly FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Ohod 3–2 Al-Faisaly FC

Ohod beat Al-Faisaly FC 3-2 in Division 1 on May 18, 2025.

The match was played at Ohod Club Stadium in Medina.