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Ohod vs Al Arabi SC — Division 1 2018

Ohod
Ohod
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Al Arabi SC
Al Arabi SC
10/4/2022Division 1Division 1 · Round 6Ohod Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Ohod43%
×Draw27%
Al Arabi SC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ohod
1.39
Al Arabi SC
1.13

Ohod creates 23% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 68 away

creates per match

Ohod
1.18
Al Arabi SC
1.18

allows per match

Ohod
1.07
Al Arabi SC
1.59

finishing

Ohod+0.00on par
Al Arabi SC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ohod ↓

Al Arabi SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ohod or draw
69%
Ohod or Al Arabi SC
73%
Draw or Al Arabi SC
57%

Winning margin

Ohod wins by 2+
20%
Al Arabi SC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ohod 1+ goals
75%
Ohod 2+ goals
40%
Ohod 3+ goals
16%
Al Arabi SC 1+ goals
68%
Al Arabi SC 2+ goals
31%
Al Arabi SC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ohod (draw refunded)
58%
Al Arabi SC (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ohod at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.07 · 108 matches

Al Arabi SC away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.59 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ohod attack 1.18 + Al Arabi SC defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.39

Al Arabi SC attack 1.18 + Ohod defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ohod scores more
43%
level
27%
Al Arabi SC scores more
31%

Ohod at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ohod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Ohod 1–1 Al Arabi SC

Ohod and Al Arabi SC drew 1-1 in Division 1 on October 4, 2022.

The match was played at Ohod Club Stadium in Medina.