Al Arabi SC 3–2 Ohod: Result & Stats | Division 1

Al Arabi SC

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Ohod

4/29/2024

Division 1 · Round 30Department of Education Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Al Arabi SC41%

×Draw25%

Ohod33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Arabi SCExpected goals in this matchOhod

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.29

Al Arabi SC

1.46

Ohod

1.29

Al Arabi SC creates 13% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 108 away

1.51

creates per match

1.14

1.44

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Al Arabi SC

1.51

Ohod

1.14

allows per match

Al Arabi SC

1.44

Ohod

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Arabi SC+0.00on par

Ohod+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Arabi SC ↓

Ohod →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Al Arabi SC or draw

67%

Al Arabi SC or Ohod

75%

Draw or Ohod

59%

Winning margin

Al Arabi SC wins by 2+

20%

Ohod wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Al Arabi SC 1+ goals

77%

Al Arabi SC 2+ goals

43%

Al Arabi SC 3+ goals

18%

Ohod 1+ goals

72%

Ohod 2+ goals

37%

Ohod 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Al Arabi SC (draw refunded)

55%

Ohod (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Arabi SC at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.44 · 68 matches

Ohod away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.41 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Arabi SC attack 1.51 + Ohod defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.46

Ohod attack 1.14 + Al Arabi SC defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al Arabi SC scores more

41%

level

25%

Ohod scores more

33%

Al Arabi SC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al Arabi SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff