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OH Leuven W vs White Star Woluwe W — Super League Women 2018

OH Leuven W
OH Leuven W
FT
8 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
White Star Woluwe W
White Star Woluwe W
8/20/2022Super League WomenSuper League Women · Round 2Gemeentelijk Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

OH Leuven W74%
×Draw15%
White Star Woluwe W11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OH Leuven W
2.84
White Star Woluwe W
1.01

OH Leuven W creates 181% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 52 away

creates per match

OH Leuven W
2.53
White Star Woluwe W
0.88

allows per match

OH Leuven W
1.14
White Star Woluwe W
3.15

finishing

OH Leuven W+0.00on par
White Star Woluwe W+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OH Leuven W ↓

White Star Woluwe W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

OH Leuven W or draw
89%
OH Leuven W or White Star Woluwe W
85%
Draw or White Star Woluwe W
26%

Winning margin

OH Leuven W wins by 2+
54%
White Star Woluwe W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

OH Leuven W 1+ goals
94%
OH Leuven W 2+ goals
77%
OH Leuven W 3+ goals
53%
White Star Woluwe W 1+ goals
64%
White Star Woluwe W 2+ goals
27%
White Star Woluwe W 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

OH Leuven W (draw refunded)
87%
White Star Woluwe W (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OH Leuven W at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.14 · 102 matches

White Star Woluwe W away — creates 0.88, concedes 3.15 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OH Leuven W attack 2.53 + White Star Woluwe W defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.84

White Star Woluwe W attack 0.88 + OH Leuven W defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

OH Leuven W scores more
74%
level
15%
White Star Woluwe W scores more
11%

OH Leuven W at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "OH Leuven W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League Women: OH Leuven W 8–0 White Star Woluwe W

OH Leuven W beat White Star Woluwe W 8-0 in Super League Women on August 20, 2022.

The match was played at Gemeentelijk Stadion in Oud-Heverlee.