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OH Leuven W vs Mechelen W — Super League Women 2018

OH Leuven W
OH Leuven W
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Mechelen W
Mechelen W
9/10/2022Super League WomenSuper League Women · Round 4Gemeentelijk Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

OH Leuven W70%
×Draw16%
Mechelen W13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OH Leuven W
2.65
Mechelen W
1.07

OH Leuven W creates 148% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 26 away

creates per match

OH Leuven W
2.53
Mechelen W
1.00

allows per match

OH Leuven W
1.14
Mechelen W
2.77

finishing

OH Leuven W+0.00on par
Mechelen W+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OH Leuven W ↓

Mechelen W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

OH Leuven W or draw
87%
OH Leuven W or Mechelen W
84%
Draw or Mechelen W
30%

Winning margin

OH Leuven W wins by 2+
49%
Mechelen W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

OH Leuven W 1+ goals
93%
OH Leuven W 2+ goals
74%
OH Leuven W 3+ goals
48%
Mechelen W 1+ goals
66%
Mechelen W 2+ goals
29%
Mechelen W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

OH Leuven W (draw refunded)
84%
Mechelen W (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OH Leuven W at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.14 · 102 matches

Mechelen W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.77 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OH Leuven W attack 2.53 + Mechelen W defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.65

Mechelen W attack 1.00 + OH Leuven W defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

OH Leuven W scores more
70%
level
16%
Mechelen W scores more
13%

OH Leuven W at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "OH Leuven W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League Women: OH Leuven W 4–0 Mechelen W

OH Leuven W beat Mechelen W 4-0 in Super League Women on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at Gemeentelijk Stadion in Oud-Heverlee.