OH Leuven W 5–0 K.S.K. Heist W: Result & Stats

OH Leuven W

FT

5 – 0

K.S.K. Heist W

4/27/2019

Super League Women · Relegation Play-offsKing Power at Den Dreef Stadion (Heverlee)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

OH Leuven W93%

×Draw5%

K.S.K. Heist W2%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OH Leuven WExpected goals in this matchK.S.K. Heist W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.45

0.66

OH Leuven W

4.45

K.S.K. Heist W

0.66

OH Leuven W creates 574% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 11 away

2.53

creates per match

0.18

1.14

allows per match

6.36

creates per match

OH Leuven W

2.53

K.S.K. Heist W

0.18

allows per match

OH Leuven W

1.14

K.S.K. Heist W

6.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

OH Leuven W+0.00on par

K.S.K. Heist W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OH Leuven W ↓

K.S.K. Heist W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–12%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–15%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–012%

4–18%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (12%) · grid covers 65% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

86%14%3.5

70%30%4.5

50%50%

Double chance

OH Leuven W or draw

98%

OH Leuven W or K.S.K. Heist W

95%

Draw or K.S.K. Heist W

7%

Winning margin

OH Leuven W wins by 2+

82%

K.S.K. Heist W wins by 2+

0%

Team goals

OH Leuven W 1+ goals

99%

OH Leuven W 2+ goals

92%

OH Leuven W 3+ goals

79%

K.S.K. Heist W 1+ goals

48%

K.S.K. Heist W 2+ goals

14%

K.S.K. Heist W 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

OH Leuven W (draw refunded)

98%

K.S.K. Heist W (draw refunded)

2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OH Leuven W at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.14 · 102 matches

K.S.K. Heist W away — creates 0.18, concedes 6.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OH Leuven W attack 2.53 + K.S.K. Heist W defence 6.36 → ÷2 → 4.45

K.S.K. Heist W attack 0.18 + OH Leuven W defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 93%?"

OH Leuven W scores more

93%

level

5%

K.S.K. Heist W scores more

2%

OH Leuven W at 93% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 93% does not mean "OH Leuven W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff