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OH Leuven W vs Genk W — Super League Women 2018

OH Leuven W
OH Leuven W
FT
8 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Genk W
Genk W
3/23/2024Super League WomenSuper League Women · Championship Round - 1Gemeentelijk Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

OH Leuven W56%
×Draw20%
Genk W24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OH Leuven W
2.20
Genk W
1.39

OH Leuven W creates 58% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 104 away

creates per match

OH Leuven W
2.53
Genk W
1.64

allows per match

OH Leuven W
1.14
Genk W
1.87

finishing

OH Leuven W+0.00on par
Genk W+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OH Leuven W ↓

Genk W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

OH Leuven W or draw
76%
OH Leuven W or Genk W
80%
Draw or Genk W
44%

Winning margin

OH Leuven W wins by 2+
34%
Genk W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

OH Leuven W 1+ goals
89%
OH Leuven W 2+ goals
64%
OH Leuven W 3+ goals
37%
Genk W 1+ goals
75%
Genk W 2+ goals
40%
Genk W 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

OH Leuven W (draw refunded)
70%
Genk W (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OH Leuven W at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.14 · 102 matches

Genk W away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.87 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OH Leuven W attack 2.53 + Genk W defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 2.20

Genk W attack 1.64 + OH Leuven W defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

OH Leuven W scores more
56%
level
20%
Genk W scores more
24%

OH Leuven W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "OH Leuven W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League Women: OH Leuven W 8–0 Genk W

OH Leuven W beat Genk W 8-0 in Super League Women on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Gemeentelijk Stadion in Oud-Heverlee.