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Genk W vs OH Leuven W — Super League Women 2018

Genk W
Genk W
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
OH Leuven W
OH Leuven W
C. Tison 27'
A. Reynders 75', 67'
S. Pusztai 52'
J. Biesmans 16' (pen)
1/24/2025Super League WomenSuper League Women · Round 14Sportcomplex Zwartberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Genk W36%
×Draw23%
OH Leuven W41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Genk W
1.61
OH Leuven W
1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 101 away

creates per match

Genk W
1.84
OH Leuven W
2.07

allows per match

Genk W
1.43
OH Leuven W
1.38

finishing

Genk W+0.00on par
OH Leuven W+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genk W ↓

OH Leuven W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Genk W or draw
59%
Genk W or OH Leuven W
77%
Draw or OH Leuven W
64%

Winning margin

Genk W wins by 2+
17%
OH Leuven W wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Genk W 1+ goals
80%
Genk W 2+ goals
48%
Genk W 3+ goals
22%
OH Leuven W 1+ goals
83%
OH Leuven W 2+ goals
52%
OH Leuven W 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Genk W (draw refunded)
46%
OH Leuven W (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genk W at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.43 · 102 matches

OH Leuven W away — creates 2.07, concedes 1.38 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genk W attack 1.84 + OH Leuven W defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.61

OH Leuven W attack 2.07 + Genk W defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Genk W scores more
36%
level
23%
OH Leuven W scores more
41%

OH Leuven W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "OH Leuven W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
J. BiesmansPenalty
27'
C. Tison
52'
S. Pusztai
67'
A. Reynders
75'
A. Reynders

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Genk W vs OH Leuven W

OH Leuven W beat Genk W 4-1 in Super League Women on January 24, 2025.

Goals: J. Biesmans (16' pen), C. Tison (27'), S. Pusztai (52'), A. Reynders (67', 75').

The match was played at Sportcomplex Zwartberg in Genk.