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OH Leuven vs RWDM — Jupiler Pro League 2026

OH Leuven
OH Leuven
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
RWDM
RWDM
8/5/2023Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 2King Power at Den Dreef Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

OH Leuven53%
×Draw23%
RWDM24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OH Leuven
1.82
RWDM
1.16

OH Leuven creates 57% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 19 away

creates per match

OH Leuven
1.38
RWDM
1.05

allows per match

OH Leuven
1.26
RWDM
2.26

finishing

OH Leuven+0.00on par
RWDM+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OH Leuven ↓

RWDM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

OH Leuven or draw
76%
OH Leuven or RWDM
77%
Draw or RWDM
47%

Winning margin

OH Leuven wins by 2+
30%
RWDM wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

OH Leuven 1+ goals
84%
OH Leuven 2+ goals
54%
OH Leuven 3+ goals
27%
RWDM 1+ goals
69%
RWDM 2+ goals
32%
RWDM 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

OH Leuven (draw refunded)
68%
RWDM (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OH Leuven at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.26 · 112 matches

RWDM away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OH Leuven attack 1.38 + RWDM defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.82

RWDM attack 1.05 + OH Leuven defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

OH Leuven scores more
53%
level
23%
RWDM scores more
24%

OH Leuven at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "OH Leuven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

OH Leuven 1 – 2 RWDM

RWDM beat OH Leuven 2-1 in Jupiler Pro League on August 5, 2023.

The match was played at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion in Heverlee.