Ogooue FC 4–2 Vautour Club: Result & Stats

Ogooue FC

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Vautour Club

4/4/2026

Championnat D1 · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ogooue FC50%

×Draw24%

Vautour Club26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ogooue FCExpected goals in this matchVautour Club

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.14

Ogooue FC

1.68

Vautour Club

1.14

Ogooue FC creates 47% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 33 away

2.15

creates per match

1.36

0.92

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Ogooue FC

2.15

Vautour Club

1.36

allows per match

Ogooue FC

0.92

Vautour Club

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ogooue FC+0.00on par

Vautour Club+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ogooue FC ↓

Vautour Club →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Ogooue FC or draw

74%

Ogooue FC or Vautour Club

76%

Draw or Vautour Club

50%

Winning margin

Ogooue FC wins by 2+

27%

Vautour Club wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ogooue FC 1+ goals

81%

Ogooue FC 2+ goals

50%

Ogooue FC 3+ goals

24%

Vautour Club 1+ goals

68%

Vautour Club 2+ goals

32%

Vautour Club 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ogooue FC (draw refunded)

66%

Vautour Club (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ogooue FC at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Vautour Club away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.21 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ogooue FC attack 2.15 + Vautour Club defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.68

Vautour Club attack 1.36 + Ogooue FC defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ogooue FC scores more

50%

level

24%

Vautour Club scores more

26%

Ogooue FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ogooue FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff