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Ogooue FC vs Pélican — Championnat D1 2022

Ogooue FC
Ogooue FC
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Pélican
Pélican
3/14/2026Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ogooue FC53%
×Draw23%
Pélican24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ogooue FC
1.77
Pélican
1.10

Ogooue FC creates 61% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 31 away

creates per match

Ogooue FC
2.15
Pélican
1.29

allows per match

Ogooue FC
0.92
Pélican
1.39

finishing

Ogooue FC+0.00on par
Pélican+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ogooue FC ↓

Pélican →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Ogooue FC or draw
76%
Ogooue FC or Pélican
77%
Draw or Pélican
47%

Winning margin

Ogooue FC wins by 2+
29%
Pélican wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ogooue FC 1+ goals
83%
Ogooue FC 2+ goals
53%
Ogooue FC 3+ goals
26%
Pélican 1+ goals
67%
Pélican 2+ goals
30%
Pélican 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ogooue FC (draw refunded)
69%
Pélican (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ogooue FC at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Pélican away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.39 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ogooue FC attack 2.15 + Pélican defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.77

Pélican attack 1.29 + Ogooue FC defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ogooue FC scores more
53%
level
23%
Pélican scores more
24%

Ogooue FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ogooue FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat D1: Ogooue FC 3–0 Pélican

Ogooue FC beat Pélican 3-0 in Championnat D1 on March 14, 2026.