Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ogooue FC vs Lozo — Championnat D1 2022

Ogooue FC
Ogooue FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lozo
Lozo
3/28/2026Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ogooue FC67%
×Draw20%
Lozo14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ogooue FC
2.10
Lozo
0.83

Ogooue FC creates 153% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 32 away

creates per match

Ogooue FC
2.15
Lozo
0.75

allows per match

Ogooue FC
0.92
Lozo
2.06

finishing

Ogooue FC+0.00on par
Lozo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ogooue FC ↓

Lozo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Ogooue FC or draw
86%
Ogooue FC or Lozo
80%
Draw or Lozo
33%

Winning margin

Ogooue FC wins by 2+
42%
Lozo wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ogooue FC 1+ goals
88%
Ogooue FC 2+ goals
62%
Ogooue FC 3+ goals
35%
Lozo 1+ goals
56%
Lozo 2+ goals
20%
Lozo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ogooue FC (draw refunded)
83%
Lozo (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ogooue FC at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Lozo away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.06 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ogooue FC attack 2.15 + Lozo defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.10

Lozo attack 0.75 + Ogooue FC defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Ogooue FC scores more
67%
level
20%
Lozo scores more
14%

Ogooue FC at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Ogooue FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat D1: Ogooue FC 1–0 Lozo

Ogooue FC beat Lozo 1-0 in Championnat D1 on March 28, 2026.