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Ogden City vs Utah United — USL League Two 2018

Ogden City
Ogden City
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Utah United
Utah United
6/16/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Western Conference - 10Zions Bank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Ogden City27%
×Draw22%
Utah United51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ogden City
1.41
Utah United
2.01

Utah United creates 43% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 18 away

creates per match

Ogden City
1.88
Utah United
2.11

allows per match

Ogden City
1.92
Utah United
0.94

finishing

Ogden City+0.00on par
Utah United+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ogden City ↓

Utah United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Ogden City or draw
49%
Ogden City or Utah United
78%
Draw or Utah United
73%

Winning margin

Ogden City wins by 2+
12%
Utah United wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Ogden City 1+ goals
76%
Ogden City 2+ goals
41%
Ogden City 3+ goals
17%
Utah United 1+ goals
87%
Utah United 2+ goals
59%
Utah United 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Ogden City (draw refunded)
34%
Utah United (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ogden City at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.92 · 25 matches

Utah United away — creates 2.11, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ogden City attack 1.88 + Utah United defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.41

Utah United attack 2.11 + Ogden City defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ogden City scores more
27%
level
22%
Utah United scores more
51%

Utah United at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Utah United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Ogden City 1–2 Utah United

Utah United beat Ogden City 2-1 in USL League Two on June 16, 2024.

The match was played at Zions Bank Stadium in Herriman, Utah.