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Ogden City vs New Mexico United II — USL League Two 2018

Ogden City
Ogden City
FT
2 – 5
HT: 1 – 1
New Mexico United II
New Mexico United II
6/17/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 38Zions Bank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Ogden City37%
×Draw22%
New Mexico United II41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ogden City
1.72
New Mexico United II
1.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 18 away

creates per match

Ogden City
1.88
New Mexico United II
1.72

allows per match

Ogden City
1.92
New Mexico United II
1.56

finishing

Ogden City+0.00on par
New Mexico United II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ogden City ↓

New Mexico United II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Ogden City or draw
59%
Ogden City or New Mexico United II
78%
Draw or New Mexico United II
63%

Winning margin

Ogden City wins by 2+
19%
New Mexico United II wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Ogden City 1+ goals
82%
Ogden City 2+ goals
51%
Ogden City 3+ goals
25%
New Mexico United II 1+ goals
84%
New Mexico United II 2+ goals
54%
New Mexico United II 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Ogden City (draw refunded)
47%
New Mexico United II (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ogden City at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.92 · 25 matches

New Mexico United II away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ogden City attack 1.88 + New Mexico United II defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.72

New Mexico United II attack 1.72 + Ogden City defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ogden City scores more
37%
level
22%
New Mexico United II scores more
41%

New Mexico United II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "New Mexico United II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Ogden City 2–5 New Mexico United II

New Mexico United II beat Ogden City 5-2 in USL League Two on June 17, 2022.

The match was played at Zions Bank Stadium in Herriman, Utah.