Ogden City 0–3 Flatirons Rush: Result & Stats

Ogden City

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Flatirons Rush

6/7/2024

USL League Two · Western Conference - 7Zions Bank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Ogden City35%

×Draw22%

Flatirons Rush43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ogden CityExpected goals in this matchFlatirons Rush

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.91

Ogden City

1.71

Flatirons Rush

1.91

Flatirons Rush creates 12% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 30 away

1.88

creates per match

1.90

1.92

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Ogden City

1.88

Flatirons Rush

1.90

allows per match

Ogden City

1.92

Flatirons Rush

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ogden City+0.00on par

Flatirons Rush+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ogden City ↓

Flatirons Rush →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Ogden City or draw

57%

Ogden City or Flatirons Rush

78%

Draw or Flatirons Rush

65%

Winning margin

Ogden City wins by 2+

18%

Flatirons Rush wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Ogden City 1+ goals

82%

Ogden City 2+ goals

51%

Ogden City 3+ goals

24%

Flatirons Rush 1+ goals

85%

Flatirons Rush 2+ goals

57%

Flatirons Rush 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Ogden City (draw refunded)

45%

Flatirons Rush (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ogden City at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.92 · 25 matches

Flatirons Rush away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ogden City attack 1.88 + Flatirons Rush defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.71

Flatirons Rush attack 1.90 + Ogden City defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ogden City scores more

35%

level

22%

Flatirons Rush scores more

43%

Flatirons Rush at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Flatirons Rush will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff