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OFTA vs Victoria United — Elite Two 2020

OFTA
OFTA
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Victoria United
Victoria United
1/15/2023Elite TwoElite Two · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

OFTA27%
×Draw31%
Victoria United43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFTA
0.84
Victoria United
1.14

Victoria United creates 36% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 12 away

creates per match

OFTA
0.94
Victoria United
1.17

allows per match

OFTA
1.11
Victoria United
0.75

finishing

OFTA+0.00on par
Victoria United+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFTA ↓

Victoria United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–116%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

OFTA or draw
57%
OFTA or Victoria United
69%
Draw or Victoria United
73%

Winning margin

OFTA wins by 2+
9%
Victoria United wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

OFTA 1+ goals
57%
OFTA 2+ goals
21%
OFTA 3+ goals
5%
Victoria United 1+ goals
68%
Victoria United 2+ goals
32%
Victoria United 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

OFTA (draw refunded)
39%
Victoria United (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFTA at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

Victoria United away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFTA attack 0.94 + Victoria United defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.84

Victoria United attack 1.17 + OFTA defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

OFTA scores more
27%
level
31%
Victoria United scores more
43%

Victoria United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Victoria United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: OFTA vs Victoria United

Victoria United beat OFTA 3-1 in Elite Two on January 15, 2023.