OFTA 1–3 UMS de Loum: Result & Stats | Elite One

OFTA

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

UMS de Loum

5/30/2022

Elite One · Round 21Stade Omnisports de Bafoussam

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

OFTA21%

×Draw26%

UMS de Loum52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OFTAExpected goals in this matchUMS de Loum

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.85

1.50

OFTA

0.85

UMS de Loum

1.50

UMS de Loum creates 76% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 66 away

0.82

creates per match

0.92

2.09

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

OFTA

0.82

UMS de Loum

0.92

allows per match

OFTA

2.09

UMS de Loum

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

OFTA+0.00on par

UMS de Loum+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFTA ↓

UMS de Loum →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–114%

0–211%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

OFTA or draw

48%

OFTA or UMS de Loum

74%

Draw or UMS de Loum

79%

Winning margin

OFTA wins by 2+

7%

UMS de Loum wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

OFTA 1+ goals

57%

OFTA 2+ goals

21%

OFTA 3+ goals

5%

UMS de Loum 1+ goals

78%

UMS de Loum 2+ goals

44%

UMS de Loum 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

OFTA (draw refunded)

29%

UMS de Loum (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFTA at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

UMS de Loum away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.89 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFTA attack 0.82 + UMS de Loum defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.85

UMS de Loum attack 0.92 + OFTA defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

OFTA scores more

21%

level

26%

UMS de Loum scores more

52%

UMS de Loum at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "UMS de Loum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff