Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

OFTA vs Tonnerre — Elite Two 2020

OFTA
OFTA
FT
2 – 1
Tonnerre
Tonnerre
1/25/2023Elite TwoElite Two · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

OFTA38%
×Draw29%
Tonnerre33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFTA
1.15
Tonnerre
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 42 away

creates per match

OFTA
0.94
Tonnerre
1.02

allows per match

OFTA
1.11
Tonnerre
1.36

finishing

OFTA+0.00on par
Tonnerre+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFTA ↓

Tonnerre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

OFTA or draw
67%
OFTA or Tonnerre
71%
Draw or Tonnerre
62%

Winning margin

OFTA wins by 2+
16%
Tonnerre wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

OFTA 1+ goals
68%
OFTA 2+ goals
32%
OFTA 3+ goals
11%
Tonnerre 1+ goals
65%
Tonnerre 2+ goals
29%
Tonnerre 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

OFTA (draw refunded)
53%
Tonnerre (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFTA at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

Tonnerre away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.36 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFTA attack 0.94 + Tonnerre defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.15

Tonnerre attack 1.02 + OFTA defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

OFTA scores more
38%
level
29%
Tonnerre scores more
33%

OFTA at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "OFTA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: OFTA 2–1 Tonnerre

OFTA beat Tonnerre 2-1 in Elite Two on January 25, 2023.