OFTA 1–1 PWD Bamenda: Result & Stats | Elite One

OFTA

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

PWD Bamenda

3/30/2022

Elite One · Round 5Stade Omnisports de Bafoussam

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

OFTA24%

×Draw26%

PWD Bamenda50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OFTAExpected goals in this matchPWD Bamenda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.55

OFTA

1.00

PWD Bamenda

1.55

PWD Bamenda creates 55% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 99 away

0.82

creates per match

1.01

2.09

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

OFTA

0.82

PWD Bamenda

1.01

allows per match

OFTA

2.09

PWD Bamenda

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

OFTA+0.00on par

PWD Bamenda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFTA ↓

PWD Bamenda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

OFTA or draw

50%

OFTA or PWD Bamenda

74%

Draw or PWD Bamenda

76%

Winning margin

OFTA wins by 2+

9%

PWD Bamenda wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

OFTA 1+ goals

63%

OFTA 2+ goals

26%

OFTA 3+ goals

8%

PWD Bamenda 1+ goals

79%

PWD Bamenda 2+ goals

46%

PWD Bamenda 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

OFTA (draw refunded)

33%

PWD Bamenda (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFTA at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

PWD Bamenda away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.18 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFTA attack 0.82 + PWD Bamenda defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.00

PWD Bamenda attack 1.01 + OFTA defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

OFTA scores more

24%

level

26%

PWD Bamenda scores more

50%

PWD Bamenda at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "PWD Bamenda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff