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OFTA vs New Star — Elite One 2019

OFTA
OFTA
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
New Star
New Star
5/15/2022Elite OneElite One · Round 15Stade Omnisport

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

OFTA33%
×Draw26%
New Star40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFTA
1.22
New Star
1.36

New Star creates 11% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 28 away

creates per match

OFTA
0.82
New Star
0.64

allows per match

OFTA
2.09
New Star
1.61

finishing

OFTA+0.00on par
New Star+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFTA ↓

New Star →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

OFTA or draw
60%
OFTA or New Star
74%
Draw or New Star
67%

Winning margin

OFTA wins by 2+
14%
New Star wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

OFTA 1+ goals
70%
OFTA 2+ goals
34%
OFTA 3+ goals
12%
New Star 1+ goals
74%
New Star 2+ goals
39%
New Star 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

OFTA (draw refunded)
46%
New Star (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFTA at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

New Star away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFTA attack 0.82 + New Star defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.22

New Star attack 0.64 + OFTA defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

OFTA scores more
33%
level
26%
New Star scores more
40%

New Star at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "New Star will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

OFTA 0 – 1 New Star

New Star beat OFTA 1-0 in Elite One on May 15, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Omnisport in Buéa.