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OFTA vs Leopard de Douala — Elite Two 2020

OFTA
OFTA
FT
2 – 2
Leopard de Douala
Leopard de Douala
2/12/2023Elite TwoElite Two · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

OFTA49%
×Draw28%
Leopard de Douala24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFTA
1.38
Leopard de Douala
0.88

OFTA creates 57% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 28 away

creates per match

OFTA
0.94
Leopard de Douala
0.64

allows per match

OFTA
1.11
Leopard de Douala
1.82

finishing

OFTA+0.00on par
Leopard de Douala+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFTA ↓

Leopard de Douala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

OFTA or draw
76%
OFTA or Leopard de Douala
72%
Draw or Leopard de Douala
51%

Winning margin

OFTA wins by 2+
23%
Leopard de Douala wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

OFTA 1+ goals
75%
OFTA 2+ goals
40%
OFTA 3+ goals
16%
Leopard de Douala 1+ goals
59%
Leopard de Douala 2+ goals
22%
Leopard de Douala 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

OFTA (draw refunded)
67%
Leopard de Douala (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFTA at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

Leopard de Douala away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.82 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFTA attack 0.94 + Leopard de Douala defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.38

Leopard de Douala attack 0.64 + OFTA defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

OFTA scores more
49%
level
28%
Leopard de Douala scores more
24%

OFTA at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "OFTA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: OFTA 2–2 Leopard de Douala

OFTA and Leopard de Douala drew 2-2 in Elite Two on February 12, 2023.