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OFTA vs Jeunes Fauves — Elite Two 2020

OFTA
OFTA
FT
3 – 0
Jeunes Fauves
Jeunes Fauves
4/2/2021Elite TwoElite Two · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

OFTA38%
×Draw28%
Jeunes Fauves34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFTA
1.22
Jeunes Fauves
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 6 away

creates per match

OFTA
0.94
Jeunes Fauves
1.17

allows per match

OFTA
1.11
Jeunes Fauves
1.50

finishing

OFTA+0.00on par
Jeunes Fauves+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFTA ↓

Jeunes Fauves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

OFTA or draw
66%
OFTA or Jeunes Fauves
72%
Draw or Jeunes Fauves
62%

Winning margin

OFTA wins by 2+
16%
Jeunes Fauves wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

OFTA 1+ goals
70%
OFTA 2+ goals
34%
OFTA 3+ goals
12%
Jeunes Fauves 1+ goals
68%
Jeunes Fauves 2+ goals
32%
Jeunes Fauves 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

OFTA (draw refunded)
53%
Jeunes Fauves (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFTA at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

Jeunes Fauves away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFTA attack 0.94 + Jeunes Fauves defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.22

Jeunes Fauves attack 1.17 + OFTA defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

OFTA scores more
38%
level
28%
Jeunes Fauves scores more
34%

OFTA at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "OFTA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: OFTA vs Jeunes Fauves

OFTA beat Jeunes Fauves 3-0 in Elite Two on April 2, 2021.